Why to Adjust the Multiplier with each roll

Assuming the rolls are random, or if not random, pre-rolled, but randomly so, then probability matters. You have a 1 in 36 chance of rolling a 2 or a 12, so you should never assume one of those will be rolled. However,  you have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a seven, the most likely number. In addition. you have a 5 in 36 chance or rolling a 6 and a 5 in 36 chance of rolling an 8, so if you are seven away, and there are good things on squares 6 and 8, then you have a 14 in 36 chance of getting them. 

You rarely have a 50% chance or better of getting rewards (you can, in token events). However, you want to increase your multiplier when the odds are in your favor. 

Here are the statistical odds, assuming random rolls (a big assumption, I grant you): 

Note: with token events, it is critical that you adjust multiplier. With Railroad events, where you get 5 points in the main event for a railroad hit, it is critical that you adjust the multiplier. It is less critical with other events. For example, with corner square events, it may not be vital (though I adjust to 100 for a corner square seven away and I adjust to 1 most of the rest of the time. I do not target railroads in corner square events (unless I am starved for railroad hits). 

Note the accumulation. If you are 7 away from a point making square, then you still only have a 6 in 36 chance of a good hit, but ...

If you are 7 spaces away and any of the rolls 6, 7, or 8 are beneficial:

• Total probability = (Probability of rolling a 6) + (Probability of rolling a 7) + (Probability of rolling an 8)

• Total probability =  5/36 + 6/36 + 5/36 or 16/36 chance of hitting is highly favorable. 

One Last Thought:

For those of you who never adjust you multiplier, but just auto roll on max: 

You are using the same multiplier on this: 

Something that has no tokens and no shields is not likely to hit anything. If instead, you role with a multiplier of 1, and move to max when you have scenarios closer than this, you will lose dice far less often. Note that I used a token event to demonstrate this concept, not because I think it is standard, but because it is the most pronounced example. 

Note: If you have a possibility of striking three squares and get good things and two are shielded, then sum the odds of striking the three and then subtract shielded squares. That will tell the odds that the roll will go well. 

Remember: targeting 6, 7, or 8 alone is usually a losing roll.  If something good is on 6 or 8 only, then there is a 31 in 36 chance it will miss (terrible odds).  If something is only good on the 7th square, but bad elsewhere, there is a 30 in 36 chance it will miss, again, terrible odds. You have to add to the safe squares together to get the odds and see fi they are good.

Also, if two good things happen at once, such as a corner event that also has free parking dice on the corners (making this up), and if a corner is at 7, then that square counts as two hits, because though you will miss it, when you do hit, it pays twice, once in reward points and again in free parking dice.